Risk Analysis: The Foundation of Prepping
Welcome to our guide on risk analysis for preppers! As a foundational concept, many people don’t realize they are using risk analysis when they prepare for emergencies, or the reasoning behind why some situations are more important to prepare for.
When you understand risk itself, the rest becomes common sense. We aren’t born with an understanding of risk, but we all learn it very quickly in a way. If we see somebody fall on a bike and get injured, we understand that there is potential for injury riding a bike- and therefore risk.
Life is full of risks, and we don’t let that stop us from living it to the fullest. But we can analyze risk- from bikes to nukes – to make wiser, safer, and more prepared decisions.
Contents (Jump to a Section)
What is Risk?
Merriam-Webster has the shortest definition: possibility of loss or injury.
That definition is for the general term of ‘risk’. ‘A risk’ is something that brings the possibility of loss or injury, also known as a hazard.
In scientific risk analysis terms, the risk wording is adjusted to two segments that can be measured:
- possibility is called probability.
- loss or injury is called impact.
You’ll see those terms a lot as we go through different scenarios and the basic steps of doing your own risk analysis.
What is Risk Analysis?
Risk analysis is the process of identifying hazards, assessing their risk, and managing your preparedness for them. Here is a deeper look at the terms used:
- Hazard: an identified risk with known or unknown probability and impact.
- Probability: the statistical chances that something will happen within a specific timespan, based on historical data and/or mathematical theory.
- Impact: the known or estimated loss brought about by the hazard.
Hazards are just labels, but probability and impact are calculations with many assumptions attached. People who do risk assessments for a living typically use averages, or worst-case scenarios to evaluate their models (depending on what they are trying to achieve).
Risk Analysis Steps for Preppers
Risk analysis is a good exercise and starting point for preppers. If you are a prepper and have never done one of your own, it can help highlight blind spots in your preparedness. Here are the three easy and fast steps for a risk analysis of your own:
Step 1: Identify Hazards
Identify each hazard that could affect you and write it down.
TruePrepper has a list of threats that we have already identified from our general risk analysis, so all you need to do is consider those hazards and add to them as needed. Try to think of as many possible disasters, emergencies, and attacks as possible and write them down. While many people (especially seasoned preppers) are comfortable discussing distressing scenarios, many can become overwhelmed in this step. Keep calm and remember that you are simply writing a list of ‘what could go wrong’.
If you get upset or overwhelmed in any of these steps, take a break and come back to it later. The rabbit hole of hazards can be overwhelming and seemingly endless, so try to keep this step to less than an hour. Don’t worry if your list is too large, you will weed the lesser hazards out in the next step.
Step 2: Assess Each Hazard’s Risk
Next to each hazard identified in the first step, rank or select each hazard that has a significant risk.
Risk, simplified, is the probability of a hazard happening compared to its probable impact. This is the part where computers, algorithms, and historical data can all help to quantify the risk (assign it a number). This is not always necessary though, since a personalized risk assessment can be completed using qualitative analysis rather than quantitative to save time.
While knowing historical data could definitely help assess the hazards, common sense, and general wisdom go a long way as well. Writing “high”, “medium”, and “low” next to each hazard is a good starting point to capture what you believe the risk for each could be.
Step 3: Risk Management
Decide the order in which you will prepare for each hazard.
Once you have figured out how big of a risk each hazard is, do not be afraid to toss low-probability and low-impact hazards to the side. If you want to increase your scope, you can always run another risk analysis in the future and encompass more threats. Managing your risk analysis is important so you can prioritize which hazards you will prepare for first, if at all.
If this is not your first risk analysis, or if you are a seasoned prepper, your prioritization may be based on how prepared you are for certain hazards already. In those cases, you may not be focusing on disasters like most starting preppers but may be focusing on attacks or SHTF situations. Prioritize the hazards based on their threat to you and your preparedness level, not just in general.
Next Steps
Congratulations, that’s it! Now that you’ve completed the risk analysis exercise, you’ll need to develop a plan, make a kit, and practice your plan.
Luckily, many of the main survival kits cover a wide range of hazards, but you may have found that your risk analysis identified a need for some specialized kits.
Practice the plans you have created to train how to respond during a wide range of situations.
If you move or have other drastic changes in your life, conduct another risk analysis so you can be sure to capture any new hazards.
Keep exploring, stay prepared, and be safe.
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I am a female, gun owning christian “wanna-be” prepper in Hot Springs,Ar. I am doing my best living in an RV w/ little room to store things but doing what i can- looking for other like-minded folks in my area…
Canaduh here, …
Good luck eh?
One thought… if you have a farmers market in your area where people bring grown goods to sell at events and such, talk with some of those folks. May of them are probably preppers to some degree or other.
The vast amounts of “risk” I face in today’s world is manmade and this shames me to no end.
It’s like they set us up to lose, and then sell us “for profit” insurance to hedge against the set up.
As someone pointed out to me, I was raised believing that quicksand would be a great risk in my life.
I’ve been carefully “groomed” to believe in risk and to believe it’s a natural human condition when most of it isn’t.
So well groomed that I never even realized I was being diddled all my life for the eternal and entitled profits of the few, the elite, the entitled, and those great winners in our perverted little world of childish win/lose.
That I was controlled and directed with childish games of win/lose that I was “groomed” to believe were wise and honourable when in reality the win/lose mentality is a serious and non-viable form of self inflicted retardation.
Perfect grooming if you ask me.
You want to talk risk?
What about being forced to use a privately owned “for profit” fiat currency sold “at interest” to suckers such as myself as “their economy”.
And I’m not allowed to create a new economy.
But I did anyway.
The Economics of Time are a community owned “not for profit” worth and value of our time and energy based in “time” alone, backed by OUR abundance, and built on a foundation of truth and reality.
But believe me when I say this economy is for the future children because it’s too risky for feeble filth such as ourselves.
No risk required in an Economy of Time.
No lies and corruption of “eternal growth and profit” here where nothing grows forever and profit is a manmade concept not found in nature are required with this new economy.
Not that we’d have the balls or the brains to create such a new economic reality for our children but I put it out there anyway to be denied by the idiots because it’s too risky.
Like the seeds of win/win I plant in the depleted soil of the win/lose mentality knowing that failed human filth makes the best fertilizer.
Just don’t be the best fertilizer.
The future will know what I mean.
Not the poor perverted people of the win/lose mentality who only understand, worship, and practice childish games of win/lose as wise and honourable.
The highest potential of the poor perverted people of the win/lose mentality is we all lose and “risk” doesn’t have a thing to do about it. It’s natural and organic.
In reality the future will call our current condition “Self Inflicted Retardation” and call this the dismal and failed Age of S.I.R. and don’t ask me how I know.
Good luck, … not that it will help such as ourselves.
I was never a “Prepper”, but wanted to be well prepared for any situation that should arise. My preparedness was low-cost and easy to execute.
1.) Learned & certified in Advanced First Aid & CPR.
2.) Have a well-stocked first aid-kit.
3.) Water-long-term water packets and a life straw.
4.) Two weeks worth of M.R.E.’s. & Energy Bars
5.) Simple Hand Tools
6.) Well-maintained vehicle carry in the car, a few quarts of oil and antifreeze.
6a.) Also check your spare tire for inflation and condition. Make sure
the jack works and you know how to change a flat tire. Also
carry a can of fix a flat. Learn how to maintain your vehicle.
Portable battery jump starter.
7.) Battery-powered AM/FM radio – and well stocked with batteries.
8.) Junk-silver coinage-96% silver content ( dimes, quarters, half-dollars, silver dollars).
9.) Cash on hand.
10.) Hard copy road maps of the area.
11.) Compass
12.) Long-wearing and durable clothing.
13.) Improved physical conditioning.