Pandemics and the most well-known lottery (the Powerball) actually have quite a lot in common. The outcomes are very different, of course. The Powerball makes a lucky group or individual very rich while a pandemic wipes out a chunk of the world’s population. The math and models associated with the two are similar though. We will talk about the predictive model math, including probabilities and impact in this article and look at how the results can affect us.
The probability for hitting the jackpot with the Powerball is currently 1 in 292,201,338. Pretty small odds! In January 13, 2016 the jackpot was a whopping $1.6 billion. The jackpot climbs high very quickly once it reaches a large amount because it draws in more players and more repeat ticket sales from the same players. Once the jackpot passes a $584 million pot, the expected value given the odds times the ticket cost actually passes the ticket value, if there is only a single winner. Passing this psychological barrier causes lottery players to dig deeper and play with more money and lures more casual players in to play as well. The result is very similar to an outbreak researched by epidemiology (the study of disease outbreaks). All of these players and extra tickets increase the probability that the game will ‘hit’ and pay out at least one jackpot winner. All of these players and extra tickets also increase the impact of the game by drastically increasing the jackpot value at a fervent rate.
Epidemiology and the Calculation of Risk
We have put it out there many times: The risk calculation is simply probability multiplied by impact. The Powerball is strictly regulated and reported- so we know the exact probability (the listed odds) and the approximate impact (the listed pot). Pandemics are a little harder to get a grasp on. Scientists pull from historical data to learn about epidemics and pandemics. They also perform tests with diseases in lab simulations to understand both the probability of occurrence on a timeline and the impact. Even with simulations, experts agree that the next pandemic will catch the world by surprise.
Rising Risk for Pandemics
Experts point to the fact that world security against disease outbreaks is only as strong as the weakest countries. Poor and underserved countries offer a potential outbreak a breeding ground to manifest quickly, without rapid reporting or treatment available. Both the probability and the impact of a pandemic outbreak are growing due to seven main reasons:
- The World Population is Growing
- People are Inhabiting New Environments
- Flora and Fauna Displacement
- More People are Traveling the Globe More Frequently
- Civil Conflict is Affecting More People
- The Doctor to Person Ratio is Dropping in Outbreak Regions
- Information (And Panic) is Spread Quickly
“Gentlemen, it is the microbes who will have the last word.” – Louis Pasteur (French chemist and microbiologist)
The Experts Weigh In
Peter Sands, the chair of the Commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future says, “Pandemics represent a real threat to human security.” He details in a recent report that new diseases will emerge and spread much faster in the 21st century than they did in the 19th. Larry Brilliant, a renown epidemiologist, reported that 90% of surveyed epidemiologists believed a pandemic will occur within their children or grandchildren’s lifetimes of at least this magnitude:
- 1 Billion Sick
- 165 Million Dead
- Contribute to Global Recession/Depression
- $1-3 Trillion Economic Cost
The Spanish Flu of 1918
We use this example often to show how quietly devastating a pandemic was only a century ago. It was not covered extensively in history class (as far as I can remember), which is a pity given how it affected the entire world. Here are the quick facts:
- Killed 3-6% of the world’s total population
- One of the first H1N1 pandemics
- Over 500 million infected worldwide (30%+ of population, 28% in the US)
- Unusually aggressive viral strain
- Effects of the pandemic were censored in US, UK, France, and Germany
- The source or ‘patient zero’ likely originated in China
The Powerball Pandemic Link
The Powerball has linked probability and impact in a very similar way a pandemic does. A rising population and the other six risk elevators listed above give pandemics more potential fuel in the same way more players in the Powerball raise the jackpot. Global society has the ability to reduce some of these risk elevators, but the chances of this happening are not likely prior to an outbreak. Unfortunately, history shows that it takes an actual occurrence to get the attention needed. When this occurrence happens, there will not be a lucky winner with a windfall of jackpot money. Instead there will be a world caught off guard and unprepared.
The Final Word
A pandemic should be on your prepping radar if it is not already. Experts agree and history shows that it is not a matter of ‘IF’ with pandemics, but a matter of ‘WHEN’. Knowing what to do and how to protect yourself and your family can give you a leg up ‘when’ any disease outbreak occurs. Communication technology and protective gear has been improving over the years as the pandemic risk grows. Staying up to date makes sense and does not require many resources. Keep exploring, stay prepared, and be safe.