TrueRisk Risk Analysis

TruePrepper has gathered data and completed a risk analysis for each threat listed. A typical risk assessment accounts for only probability and severity. With just two components, this limits the scope and accuracy of the risk assessment. At TruePrepper we assigned the threats a TrueRisk index level using a mathematical algorithm that uses over eight components:

  • Forecasted Probability
  • Historical Frequency
  • Mitigation Potential
    • Resources
    • Prediction
    • Awareness
  • Historical Loss of Life
  • Historical Damage
  • Forecasted Impact
  • Range of Impact
  • Combination Potential

The algorithm forecasts recognized trends instead of using blanket average data that may unintentionally smooth and affect traditional risk analysis accuracy. It uses exponential regression, so the risk index range between a 9 and 8 is larger than the same range between 2 and 1.

The TrueRisk level is meant to help you identify which threats to prepare for first. Level 9 TrueRisk should be a high priority threat that you should prepare for immediately, if you have not already. A level 1 TrueRisk is a lower priority threat, and should be prepared for after you have reviewed and evaluated threats with higher TrueRisk levels. The levels are suggestions as some threats are circumstantial, geography based, or avoidable. Some threats are not applicable to certain individuals based on many factors. Some threats we are not able to predict, but if you are prepared for enough other threats and hone survival skills, you may be resourceful and ready for them when they occur.

 


 

Sources used for the TrueRisk calculations:

FBI Crime Database

EM-DAT International Database

NOAA Environmental Information Database

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science

RAND Corporation

First hand DOD Emergency Management Experience